By: Head of Data Science at LightBox, Zach Wade
Just weeks after Hurricane Helene tore through Florida, another hurricane hit the Gulf region. Hurricane Milton, a powerful Category 5 storm at its peak with sustained winds of 180 mph, initially threatened the Tampa Bay area, raising fears of unprecedented destruction. Followed closely on the heels of Helene, Milton added more strain to the region already grappling with significant devastation.
Early projections indicated that Tampa would face catastrophic damage, with massive storm surges expected to inundate the city’s commercial centers. However, as the storm approached the coast, it hit an area of increased vertical wind shear, lowering the intensity of the storm to a Category 3. It also shifted south, making landfall in the less densely populated region of Siesta Key in Sarasota County on the evening of October 9th. While this spared Tampa Bay from the worst impact, Milton’s path of destruction throughout the state included damaging homes, commercial properties, boats, and other infrastructure, albeit to a lesser extent than initially predicted. The storm surge, which was expected to overwhelm much of the coastline, also fell short of its forecast, leading to reduced overall damage estimates.
Although the storm could have been much worse, the region is still working to assess the full aftermath. The morning after landfall, 29% of the state—over 3 million residents—woke up without power. As of October 14th, the number of people still without power has dropped significantly to approximately 405,980. Governor DeSantis said Saturday morning that more than 1,000 people have been rescued from flooding and other hazards although at least 17 lives were lost.
Devastating Tornadoes and Hurricane Wind Damage
What set Hurricane Milton apart was not just its size and intensity but the tornadoes it spawned before it made landfall. These tornadoes caused unpredictable destruction, striking commercial centers far beyond the coastal areas. Meteorologists estimate that at least 38 tornadoes were connected to Milton. However, the National Weather Service (NWS) is still analyzing preliminary reports, a process that could take several weeks to finalize. Prior to Milton making landfall, the NWS issued 126 tornado warnings throughout the state.
The historic tornado outbreak swept through areas like Fort Pierce and Vero Beach, with one tornado reaching a peak wind speed of 155 mph along an 18.2-mile path. Significant structural damage was reported, particularly in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village, where mobile homes were destroyed—according to an initial survey, “more than 20 homes were tossed, even flipped, from their foundations.” Major damage also occurred at the South Florida Logistics Center, with warehouses collapsing. The tornadoes compounded the challenges of the hurricane, creating further risks for property owners and managers.
Milton produced rare EF-3-intensity tornadoes; a significant anomaly given that less than 1% of tornadoes associated with landfalling tropical systems typically reach this strength. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan in 2004 spawned the highest number of confirmed tornadoes with 118.
In addition to tornado outbreaks, once Milton made landfall, the downgraded storm brought significantly lessened sustained winds—of 120 mph— still producing serious damage. Milton’s winds collapsed a giant crane into a downtown office building housing many businesses including the Tampa Bay Times Newspaper. The high sustained winds also significantly damaged the roof of Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Bay Rays baseball team. And the Raymond James Stadium was inundated with flood water from rain.
Mapping the Damage from the Storm Surge
To assess the potential impacts to properties—exclusively focused on the storm surge— LightBox analyzed building footprints, parcel boundaries, and property characteristics with NOAA forecasts and damage functions from the Army Corps of Engineers. Using this data, our experts were able to analyze the most at-risk areas for storm surge flooding. As Hurricane Milton shifted and evolved, LightBox continuously updated these estimates to reflect the real-time situation, providing property owners and brokers with the most accurate damage assessments.
Before Milton made landfall, forecasts indicated that nearly 500,000 structures were at risk of experiencing storm surge exceeding one foot. This widespread threat sparked urgent action from commercial property owners, especially those in high-risk flood zones. However, by 4 a.m. on the morning of October 10, during the height of the storm, updated forecasts showed that approximately 243,000 structures remained at risk of significant flooding, a much lower figure than initially predicted.
Despite the reduced storm surge threat, about 241,000 of these structures still faced likely inundation that exceeded their foundation height, resulting in significant damage. While this was a relief for many coastal property owners, the damage was still severe, and inland regions faced additional challenges due to the tornadoes. The estimated damage from storm surge flooding alone totaled $10.6 billion, down from the earlier projection of $24.6 billion.
The Complex Recovery Landscape
In the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, residential and commercial property owners are now focused on assessing the extent of both flood and tornado damage. While some structures will require only minor repairs, others sustained significant damage potentially needing to be completely rebuilt. The inland tornado damage poses additional challenges, as recovery efforts extend into regions not originally forecasted to be in the storm’s path.
Notably, the path of Milton cut through hundreds of manufacturing sites that store hazardous materials and utilities with coal ash ponds on site. This will present significant environmental risks that commercial property owners, managers, and insurers will have to assess. Environmental data, including contamination risks and hazard zones, further shape decisions on rebuilding strategies and assessing property values. We discuss these environmental risks and rebuilding strategies in greater depth in the CRE Weekly Digest podcast.
Detailed property damage assessments reveal structural issues, safety hazards, and required repairs, while geospatial data pinpoints flood zones, elevation, and maps of affected areas. LightBox analysts are investigating damage estimates related to wind damage and analyzing FEMA disaster areas for a future blog.
The unpredictable nature of Hurricane Milton, particularly its spawning tornadoes rather than the anticipated storm surge, underscores the need for robust preparation and recovery strategies for commercial properties in at-risk regions. The hurricane left a lasting mark on the CRE landscape, with recovery efforts expected to continue for months to come.
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